Polymarket, the decentralized prediction platform that allows users to bet on the likelihood of various events, is reportedly facing a ban in France, according to local media outlet The Big Whale. The National Gambling Authority of France (ANJ), which oversees gambling regulations in the country, has informed sources that Polymarket is considered illegal under French law.
Despite its use of cryptocurrencies, Polymarket’s core activity—betting on future outcomes—violates French gambling regulations. The ANJ source stated that “even if Polymarket uses cryptocurrencies in its operations, it remains a betting activity, and this is not legal in France.”
Polymarket Under Scrutiny Amid Major Bets on U.S. Elections
Polymarket, which has seen massive volumes of bets placed on events like the U.S. elections, has come under increasing scrutiny from regulators around the world. In the lead-up to the U.S. elections, Polymarket saw more than $3.2 billion in betting volume, with $294 million in trades recorded on November 5 alone.
The platform’s decentralized nature and the significant profits made by some users have attracted the attention of regulators, particularly in jurisdictions where online betting is heavily regulated or prohibited. A notable example is a French trader, identified only as Théo, who reportedly placed $30 million in bets on Donald Trump’s victory and earned around $48 million in profits. This has raised concerns among French authorities about the platform’s operations and its potential impact on local bettors.
ANJ Likely to Block Polymarket’s Access in France
The ANJ has indicated that it plans to “prohibit access” to Polymarket in the near future, potentially blocking French users from accessing the platform altogether. French law firm ORWL Avocats partner William O’Rorke compared Polymarket to a traditional sports betting platform, pointing out that the ANJ has the authority to block such platforms even if they don’t specifically target French users.
Despite being based in New York, Polymarket is currently unavailable to U.S. residents due to legal restrictions. However, the platform has been accused of using U.S. social media influencers to promote election betting content, which may have raised red flags with regulators.
Possible Measures: Domain Block or Pressure on Local Providers
The ANJ has confirmed that it is aware of the significant bets made by French users, including the aforementioned multi-million-dollar wagers, and is examining whether Polymarket complies with French gambling laws. O’Rorke suggested that the ANJ could block Polymarket’s domain name in France, and may even target the platform’s local access points by pressuring players or service providers that facilitate its access within the country.
However, enforcing such a ban may prove difficult. Even if the domain is blocked or access to the site is restricted, users could potentially bypass these measures using VPN services, making it unclear how effective such actions would be in the long term.
Polymarket’s Growth Reflects DeFi’s Early Challenges
Polymarket’s rise this year has mirrored the trajectory of decentralized finance (DeFi) in its early days. Mohd Kifa, head of compliance at Flipster derivatives exchange, compared Polymarket’s growing popularity to the DeFi boom of 2020, which garnered significant attention but was met with initial skepticism from regulators and industry players. While DeFi’s hype cooled in 2020, it ultimately led to the mobilization of talent and investment, resulting in substantial developments in the space.
Kifa believes that Polymarket may follow a similar path, noting that despite its early success, there are still concerns about the platform’s liquidity and accusations of manipulation—particularly regarding its prediction markets for events like the U.S. elections.
Looking Ahead: A Regulatory Hurdle for Prediction Markets
As Polymarket faces increasing regulatory scrutiny in countries like France, its future as a decentralized betting platform remains uncertain. While it has tapped into the growing interest in prediction markets, its ability to scale globally will depend on how well it navigates the complex landscape of gambling laws and financial regulations. If platforms like Polymarket continue to face regulatory pushback, they may be forced to adapt or risk being shut down in key markets.
